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I'll discuss a bearish options hedge on a member of the chip sector that appears to be breaking down. Below is a 6-month daily chart of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) , which monitors the chip sector. Among the semiconductor stocks, Micron (MU) stands out as a notable example. However, since securities can remain overbought for extended periods, it's important to wait for the RSI to dip below 70 before considering a bearish trade setup. The Trade Setup: The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread" also known as "put debit spread".
Persons: Nishant Pant, Nishant Organizations: Nvidia, iShares Semiconductor, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, MU, YTD
However, I want to establish an insurance trade in the event chip stocks come up for a breather short-term or reverse some of this rally. SOXX .SPX 6M mountain iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) vs. the S & P 500 The continued euphoria and associated demand for artificial intelligence semiconductors has boosted several chip stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD. These three stocks alone are collectively up 150% on a one year look back and also make up nearly 25% of iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) . DISCLOSURES: (Long SOXX, Long this put spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Long Organizations: Federal Reserve, Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, iShares Semiconductor Locations: U.S
Michael Burry, best known for calling the subprime mortgage crisis, added several new stocks in the fourth quarter, including some leading tech names Amazon and Alphabet , according to a new regulatory filing. The 52-year-old's new Amazon and Alphabet positions were worth more than $4 million each at the end of 2023. The chip ETF fund was up nearly 22% in the fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, Burry also added small positions in MGM Resorts , Advance Auto Parts , Warner Bros. The latest SEC filing from Scion Asset reflects Burry's holdings as of the end of December.
Persons: Michael Burry, Burry, Michael Lewis Organizations: Scion Asset Management, Healthcare, Oracle, Citigroup, CVS Health, Amazon, iShares Semiconductor, MGM Resorts, Advance, Parts, Warner Bros, Vital Energy, SEC, Scion Asset Locations: Mettler, Toledo, Bruker
Prepare for volatility in the semiconductor industry after an exuberant 2023 that saw prices surge and left many companies with lofty valuations. "Higher valuations in my experience lead to higher investor expectations and those higher investor expectations typically lead to higher volatility," said Michael Brenner of FBB Capital Partners . Computer chip stocks surged in 2023, largely due to enthusiasm surrounding the use of artificial intelligence and the need for advanced semiconductors. Bracing for volatility Semiconductor companies have a lot to prove in 2024 after wowing investors last year. KeyBanc Capital Markets' John Vinh said in a recent note to clients that auto industry semiconductor demand in the new year will benefit Analog Devices , NXP Semiconductors and On Semiconductor .
Persons: Michael Brenner, Capital's Paul Schatz, Sylvia Jablonski, Robert Pavlik, Brenner, FBB, Jensen Huang, Nvidia aren't, Schatz, Jablonski, Intel's, Ross Seymore, Seymore, Brenner isn't, John Vinh, bode, Vinh, Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: FBB Capital Partners, iShares Semiconductor, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Devices, Deutsche, Marvell Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor, Infineon, EV, KeyBanc, NXP Semiconductors, Semiconductor, Qualcomm, Lam Research
Lisa Su, president and CEO of AMD, during an interview with Mad Money, broadcasting from CNBC's San Francisco bureau on November 21, 2019. The big winner for investors this year in the generative AI boom has been Nvidia . Those companies got a boost after announcing enhancements that draw on generative AI. The data center is another source of optimism, and a few cloud service providers are positioned to win business as organizations boost spending on technology to help them run generative AI services. Here are three other stocks gaining momentum due to the generative AI wave:
Persons: Lisa Su, OpenAI Organizations: AMD, Mad, Nvidia, Microsoft, Nasdaq, iShares Semiconductor Locations: CNBC's San Francisco
Burry also closed out bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index, the filings showed. His Scion Asset Management’s biggest new position last quarter was in bearish options on an exchange-traded fund focused on semiconductors. He bought put options with a notional value of $47.4 million against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.O), according to the filing. The filings also showed that Burry's fund no longer held puts on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Hedge fund Man Group also sold its 1.1 million shares in Nvidia, while Renaissance Technologies LLC sold its entire stake in the company.
Persons: Michael Burry, Burry, George Soros, Carolina Mandl, David Gregorio, Anna Driver, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, iShares Semiconductor, Soros Fund Management, Society, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactoring, Man, Renaissance Technologies, Tiger Global Management, Eisler Capital, Man Group, Duquesne Family Office, Thomson Locations: U.S, TSMC, New York
It is also not known whether Burry still holds the position or whether it's some sort of hedge against a long position. Those positions were winners for Burry as the stock market finished the third quarter lower. Burry is one of several hedge fund managers who correctly identified the housing bubble ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. Burry closed his previous hedge fund, known as Scion Capital Management, after the financial crisis. The hedge fund filings do not show all types of derivatives or private investments, so the full scope of Burry's positions are unknown.
Persons: Michael Burry, Burry, Michael Lewis Organizations: Scion, Management, iShares Semiconductor, Devices, Broadcom, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Burry, Scion Capital Management, Scion Asset Management, Nexstar Media Group Locations: Stellantis
US stocks fell on Friday as investors fret about a potential slowdown in the semiconductor space. Reuters reported that Taiwan Semiconductor told its suppliers to delay some order shipments. Investors are also turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Technology stocks led the decline after Reuters reported that Taiwan Semiconductor told its suppliers to delay some order shipments amid concerns of a slowdown in the space. It represents the first time in history that employees at the Big 3 — Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis — went on strike at the same time.
Persons: Ford, Stellantis — Organizations: Reuters, Taiwan Semiconductor, Service, iShares Semiconductor, United Auto Workers, Detroit's, General Motors, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened for Wall Street analysts' favorite names in the semiconductor basket. The average price target on Nvidia shares suggests the highest upside potential among those on the list. Wall Street's average price target on its shares suggests the stock could rise nearly 30%. However, analysts believe the stock has more than 30% upside potential. The average price target implies nearly 16% upside potential.
Persons: Rosenblatt, bullish, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Semiconductor, iShares Semiconductor, Nvidia, CNBC Pro, Wall Street, AMD, Marvell Technology, Susquehanna Locations: Wednesday's
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. General Mills — Shares dropped 3.9% following mixed fiscal fourth-quarter results. The Betty Crocker and Cheerios owner beat Wall Street expectations on earnings, reporting $1.12 in adjusted earnings per share against a Refinitiv consensus estimate of $1.07 per share. The Wall Street bank said Pinterest is making the strategic move to outsource monetization to third-parties to overcome its attribution and scale challenges, including a partnership with Amazon. ZoomInfo — Shares of the software company added 3.9% in premarket trading after Needham initiated coverage of ZoomInfo with a buy rating.
Persons: Mills, Betty Crocker, Biden, Wells, Pinterest, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Needham, ZoomInfo, Yun Li, Jesse Pound Organizations: Safeway, Nvidia, Street Journal, iShares Semiconductor, Amazon Locations: San Anselmo , California, China
The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen 11.5% this year and stands at a 10-month high. The S&P 500 rose 1.45%. The recent surge in Nvidia showed how a stock can keep climbing even after posting hefty gains. At the same time, only 20.3% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index on a rolling three-month basis, a record low dating back five decades, according to Ned Davis. Kotok views narrowing breadth as an ominous sign for the broader stock market, saying that equities also look less favorable in certain asset valuation metrics.
Persons: Ned Davis, Peter Tuz, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield, , Brendan McDermid Michael Purves, Purves, Kevin Mahn, Refinitiv, , Mahn, Dow, David Kotok, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, BofA Global Research, Ned Davis Research, Chase Investment, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Nasdaq, Hennion, Walsh Asset Management, Dow Jones, Cumberland Advisors, Thomson Locations: megacap, BofA, New York City, U.S
The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen 11% this year and stands at a 10-month high. He is overweight megacaps, including Nvidia, Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O). The recent surge in Nvidia showed how a stock can keep climbing even after posting hefty gains. At the same time, only 20.3% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index on a rolling three-month basis, a record low dating back five decades, according to Ned Davis. In one commonly used valuation metric, the S&P 500 is trading at 18.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
Persons: Ned Davis, Peter Tuz, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield, , Michael Purves, Purves, Kevin Mahn, Refinitiv, , Mahn, Dow, David Kotok, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, BofA Global Research, Ned Davis Research, Chase Investment, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Nasdaq, Hennion, Walsh Asset Management, Dow Jones, Cumberland Advisors, Thomson Locations: megacap, BofA
Meta became Coatue's biggest holding at the end of March, with a stake worth $1.7 billion, the filing showed. The Facebook parent has been one of the biggest winners in the tech sector this year, rising nearly 100%. Chip giant Nvidia was Coatue's second-biggest holding at the end of March after the hedge fund raised the stake slightly. The New York-based fund also upped its AMD stake dramatically last quarter, making it its seventh-largest holding. The hedge fund also picked up Taiwan Semiconductor , building a new stake worth more than $500 million.
Nvidia has undoubtedly been one of the sector's biggest winners this year, but Bank of America is doubling down on a lesser-known chip stock. That's significantly higher than the average potential upside of 16.1% given by analysts covering the stock, according to FactSet data. Bank of America described the firm as a "top pick" among European auto semiconductors and said the stock remains cheaper than its peers. The bank said it believes concerns about the company's poor track record and high Apple concentration are "likely to fade over the course of the next 12-18 months" as it improves gross margins and operating margins. Apple's share of the firm's revenue is also likely to drop to around 10% by end-2024, the bank added.
In this article ANET Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTSompong_tom | Istock | Getty ImagesThe rise of ChatGPT has sparked another national conversation about artificial intelligence. That has poured more fuel on an arms race that has been going on for years in AI. Today, the device is barely functional after the company shut off a host of services last year. The largest cloud service providers, or hyper-scalers, today each have millions of servers in data centers scattered across the country. The company produces network switches for large data centers that enable connectivity between devices in a network.
The South Korean chip maker also said it will cut memory chip production amid slowing global growth, dwindling demand and oversupply. TSMC When it comes to TSMC, Morgan Stanley is staying bullish despite expectations of near-term pressure on the stock. In the near term, we also expect TSMC's 2Q23 revenue guidance to be weaker than expected," Morgan Stanley's analysts, led by Charlie Chan, wrote in a note on Apr. 20, the bank's base case scenario will see the chip giant guiding for a longer-than-expected inventory correction. Tim Seymour, founder and chief investment officer of Seymour Asset Management, believes the dip in TSMC's share price is a buying opportunity .
NVDA AMD YTD mountain Nvidia vs. AMD year to date So, the question now is: Can the rally in semis continue? To help us read the tea leaves, here's a look at what Wall Street analysts are saying about the underlying fundamentals of the industry. Evercore said a "fundamental bottom" for the semiconductor industry currently playing out in March and April "has only strengthened" recently. Analysts there believe the inventory correction that's plagued the industry in recent quarters will be largely complete by the second quarter. Bottom line While there's some variation on timing, Wall Street clearly believes a bottom is in the process of playing out in the semiconductor industry.
Chip stocks made a breathtaking comeback in the first quarter, but don't be surprised if the rally gives up some of its gains, investors warn. The semiconductor sector on Friday wrapped up its best quarter since 2020 as investors rotated back into the downtrodden industry, with names like Nvidia notching its best quarterly stretch since 2001. The recent tear in semiconductor stocks brings the sector into overbought territory versus non-financial cyclicals, said Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite in a recent note. Like many investors, Niles views Nvidia as a dominant AI play despite its rich valuation . While the stock's given those gains, many investors viewed the print as a sign of a bottom.
Against this backdrop, a slew of strategists are calling it a stock picker's market and advising investors to be particularly mindful of the companies they invest in. "You really do need to have discipline, but this is definitely a stock picker's market. The SOXX, which offers investors exposure to a basket of U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks, is up more than 20% this year. She believes the current macro backdrop is a "stock picker's scenario" that calls for "an active trading environment." The stock has a current dividend yield of 2.7%, higher than the industry average of 0.8%, according to FactSet data.
One is the return of semiconductor stocks , as demand bounces back for chips; the other is artificial intelligence, following the buzz surrounding chatbot ChatGPT. CNBC Pro screened for the highest-rated ETFs with exposure to semiconductor and/or AI-related stocks (among others) using Morningstar data. The screen included four ETFs focused only on semiconductor stocks — all with a five-star rating. Three of the funds — the VanEck Semiconductor ETF , SPDR S & P Semiconductor ETF and iShares Semiconductor ETF — have Nvidia as their highest-weighted stock. The Invesco DWA Technology Momentum ETF also has a mix of semiconductor stocks (at 32% of the ETF) as well as other stocks with exposure to AI.
Investor interest in the semiconductor sector has rebounded in recent months with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up nearly 50% from its October lows. Shares in the Dutch firm have risen more than 23% year-to-date, but Morgan Stanley believes its rally still has legs. This gives the stock potential upside of over 20% to its price of around 628 euros on Thursday. Why ASML is a top pick Morgan Stanley said ASML is a "high-quality" name that dominates its segment. The semiconductor sector is notorious for its cyclicality and boom-bust cycles, but Morgan Stanley said 2023 will be a "recovery year" for semiconductors, as macro headwinds subside and demand for consumer devices remain sticky.
Here's the bear case for artificial intelligence
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Now that ChatGPT unleashed a firestorm of interest in artificial intelligence investing, it may be time to urge some calm for investors. AI YTD mountain AI software provider C3.ai has seen its stock more than doubled as investors look to hop on the artificial intelligence trend. Here's the bear case for artificial intelligence. That's about seven times more than the cost to run a typical Google search, which Nowak estimated to be $0.003, or not even half of one cent. Separately, the lack of proper citation from generative AI could mean future lawsuits for AI companies.
The semiconductor sector has seen quite a turnaround of late. Chip stocks were among the worst performers last year, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) shedding more than 35% of its value. Despite this, chip stocks have flown somewhat under the radar since the beginning of the year as the buzz around artificial intelligence and a recovery in Big Tech dominated investor attention. While the semiconductor sector is notorious for its cyclicality and boom-bust cycles, several Wall Street pros are urging investors to take a longer-term view. Europe stock ideas In Europe, a raft of chip stocks made Bank of America 's list of "2023 European Best Stock Ideas."
The iShares Semiconductor ETF is up 11% this year, in stark contrast to the index's 35.8% decline in 2022. Semiconductor chips are an important component of EVs, and it is for that reason that veteran fund manager Trent Masters is bullish on Arizona-based semiconductor supplier company ON Semiconductor . Masters said a driver-assisted traditional vehicle has about $150 worth of electronic content, while a "Level 5" autonomous vehicle has about $1,600 worth of electronic content. An 'absolutely unique' business Masters is also a fan of Dutch chip firm ASML . The company sells $200 million extreme ultraviolet lithography machines , which are required to make the most advanced chips, to semiconductor manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
Semiconductor stocks suffered a series of blows in 2022 as demand for consumer discretionary items fell off a cliff and supply chain disruptions continued. Betting on semiconductor favorites Despite ongoing volatility, some analysts and investors are still betting on once high-flying names in 2023, even though the challenges of 2022 continue. One of those is Advanced Micro Devices, a chip stock commonly connected with PC and server chips that fell hard in 2022. Texas Instruments held up better than the rest of the semiconductor market in 2022, shedding a little more than 12%. Bailey is mostly shying away from former, rapid growth names, with small bets on ASML and Marvell for clients looking for possible higher growth.
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